So, we're having an election - what about that?

Being a communications nerd, I find election communications strategies interesting. I know, I need to get a life, but it is what it is.  

Photo Credit: StockCake

This time around, with an election that the polls tell us will be close, I don’t see a clear winner in regards to who did the best job of communicating why they should get your vote. I have more respect for the Liberal and Green strategies though, not necessarily because of effectiveness, but because they didn’t resort to tactics from the Trump playbook. I have blogged about this already and so won’t repeat that content here.  

It's interesting though that the Tories are counting on fear scoring them some votes. Including a fear-based message that if you don’t vote Tory, you may be saddled with a Liberal-Green coalition. That is true, even though remote, but I don’t see that as anything to fear. In fact if I had my druthers, we’d have a minority government. But, if the PCs think it’s effective as a scare tactic, fair enough, as is throwing it out there that a Liberal government would run us back into the red financially. Not saying it would happen, but it’s a legitimate argument to make. As is trying to tie Susan Holt in with the very unpopular Justin Trudeau at every opportunity. If I were advising their communications, I’d suggest doing that too. Worth a shot, I guess.  

Photo Credit: Global News

As for the Liberal strategy, I find it interesting that it is almost exclusively focused on health care. Maybe not surprising as polling shows it is way up there above anything else as the driving issue on voter’s minds. I could be critical of the Liberals not doing enough to counter Higgs’ narrative that Policy 713 is only about parent’s rights, things like that. The Liberals do have promises that focus on school meals and housing with a rent cap and a strategy to see more housing constructed, so there are exceptions, but for the most part, they are laser-focused on one issue, health care. Is the prospect of a better health-care delivery model more appealing to voters than a two cent HST cut? The Liberals are banking on it.  

For what it’s worth I like the Green platform best, partly because they aren’t going to win so we don’t have to worry about the considerable cost, but their ideas for systemic change are certainly worthy of discussion. I hope they expand their seat count a bit because I think it would serve our legislature well to have more of a Green voice in the mix. And if they have the balance of power in a minority Liberal government, I have no problem with that.  

But what will happen? Like it or not, vote splitting will be a factor in some ridings, and with two parties that lean left and only one that leans right, simple math suggests the one that leans right should win, in ridings where the vote splits three ways.  

Dr. John Dornan. Photo Credit: CBC

There are many examples but one that is specifically interesting is Saint John Portland—Simonds. This riding was held by Progressive Conservative Trevor Holder since 1999. If you do the math, that’s a quarter of a century. But he is one of the MLAs who left the government in protest over Higgs leadership style and his changes to Policy 713, and he has not reoffered. The Liberals are running Dr. John Dornan in that seat. As many will remember, he was the CEO of Horizon Health who was fired by Blaine Higgs two years ago after someone died in the Chalmers Hospital waiting room. He was later awarded $2 million for unfair dismissal.  

According to the latest figures from the polling aggregate site 338Canada, he is in a dead heat with PC candidate Paul Dempsy, each with 45% of the vote. The Green candidate, PJ Duncan has 9%. But despite having a wonderful Scottish name, Duncan is not going to win, but his candidacy presents a dilemma for his supporters. If you are a Green, do you stick with your guy and risk possibly giving a new mandate to Higgs because in an election as close as this one apparently is, one seat could be the difference between winning and losing, or do you act strategically and go with your second choice in order to try to stop the seat from going blue. It’s a tough call and one I am glad I don’t have to make.  

Green leader and candidate David Coon. Photo Credit: Wikipedia

Consider as well Fredericton – Lincoln, David Coon’s seat. According to the most recent polling he’s only leading his PC challenger by 3%. The Liberal is sitting at 29%. The Liberal is not going to win, but those votes could stop Coon from winning as well, as he is probably those Liberal voters 2nd choice.   

Susan Holt isn’t assured of her seat either, in the 3-way race in her riding, but the latest polling suggests she has opened up a seven point lead ahead of her PC challenger. Usually that’s enough. But look, all this said and done, you know as well as I do that polls aren’t something you can’t take to the bank. They have been wrong before and they will be wrong again. We just don’t know if that “again” is going to be Monday.  

Nothing particularly unique on this question facing voters, where you have two competing parties on one side of the political spectrum going again a single party that owns the other side. Under our system it is quite usual in many ridings, every election. But maybe it carries more weight this time because the race is so close.  

Photo Credit: Canadian Mortgage Trends

But that said, I find something unsettling about strategic voting, it just doesn’t feel right to vote for my 2nd choice. But maybe I need to get over that. As Angela Davis put it “Voting is a chess move, not a Valentine.” There is no denying it is, or can be, a factor.  

But enough about polls and voting strategically. Enough nerd stuff, so I will end on something else.  

As I said in a Facebook post to mark Thanksgiving, we need only look to our neighbours to the south to understand the value of what we have here. Come Monday night, somebody will win our election, and the leaders of the other main parties will reach out to congratulate him or her on their victory. It will be civil, peaceful, and respectful. And whether your choice wins or loses, we can all be grateful for that. And that’s not nothing.

Thanks for reading. As always, shares are appreciated.