Some thoughts on the NB election campaign

The writ has dropped and the race is officially on. Premier Higgs opened the bidding early with an HST cut, but then Susan Holt saw that bid and countered with tax-reduced power bills.  

But I don’t expect a bidding war on promises. For Higgs that would damage his legacy as the Premier who brought the province back from the brink of financial peril, and for Holt, it would fuel the Tory’s claim that a Liberal government would drive us back into the red.  

U de M Economist and Public Policy Consultant Richard Saillant Photo Credit: Radio Canada

Taxpayers can argue over which cut will serves us best. Economist Richard Saillant says the HST cut is a terrible idea that could jeopardize the province’s economic position over the long run. Others argue that an HST cut benefits the rich more than the poor because the rich spend more. Haven’t heard much about the promise to eliminate the provincial tax part of our power bills yet because it was just announced.  

But even though the cost of living is foremost in many voters’ minds, I don’t think the election will pivot on it because those two cost cutting measures will just cancel each other out.  

The election, I think will hinge on other things.  

I have made no secret of my disappointment in the Trump-like tactics Higgs has adopted via Steve Outhouse, the operative he imported to run his campaign. My blog on that focused on Higgs strategically embracing an “us vs them” position, suggesting the media is unfair to him and people who don’t agree with him are just part of the “extreme left”. and should be ignored. here’s that blog.

Taking this route is a gamble on Higgs part. Many of the most progressive Progressive Conservative MLAs, the very politicians who helped get him elected, have since left the fold, mostly because they were opposed to his authoritarian leadership style and because they felt he was taking the party too far to the right. For many, Policy 713 was the last straw. 

Photo Credit: Global News

Higgs gamble with Policy 713, is that he will find enough support within the Christian Right to more than make up for the people who see the policy as an unsafe and unfair threat to young people who are struggling with their sexual identity. He has positioned it as simply facilitating a parents right to know, and he has chosen to dismiss the views of many of his own MLAs, teachers, social workers, the Child Advocate, not to mention the views of people with expertise like school psychologists. The fact Higgs had no interest in listening to their reasoning of why this is a bad idea, tells me that for him, this isn’t really about what’s best for the kids, it’s about courting the anti-LGBTQ vote.  

Consider those ridiculous postcards from the evangelical Campaign for Life Coalition, accusing teachers of pushing a transgender agenda and leaving the impression children are undergoing sex change procedures unbeknownst to their parents. When asked about them, Premier Higgs simply leaned on the group’s right to free speech, but not one word of criticism over the offensive and misleading content. Not a word.  

That tells me he’s on board and sees the campaign as friendly to his re-election effort.  

But these issues aren’t ones most people will base their their vote on.  

According to the polls, our health care and affordable housing crisis are right up there with reducing the cost of living as top-of-mind election issues. If the cost of living is a wash because of the dueling tax decreases, then it’s health care that may make the difference.  

Photo Credit: Telegraph Journal

The Liberals are promising 30 Community Care Clinics, which sounds great. But Holt has her work cut out for her in explaining how that’s going to come together, given that every province in Canada is scrambling to find health care professionals to staff such facilities amid a serious shortage. It’s not as if the Higgs government hasn’t been trying to find solutions to this issue as well. She has to figure out how to elevate this promise beyond an election talking point to where voters can actually believe this is an achievable, viable solution. Speaking as one of them, I’m not there yet. 

She might though, find support with her promises of rent controls and a school food program, but as yet, neither promise seems to have caused much of a buzz, but it may come. 

But all that aside let me wrap up with this. I agree with what I heard political science professor Jamie Gillies say on CBC, that this election may turn out to be a referendum on Higgs. I would add that it may also be a vote based on the historically unpopular Trudeau, given the Higgs campaign, by never mentioning one without the other, is trying to ensure that he remains the giant albatross around Holt’s neck. 

Nobody ever said politics is fair.

Thanks for reading. As always, shares are appreciated.

Cover Photo Credit: Radio Canada