If the current polling holds, we are looking at a Blaine Higgs majority government by one week from today. Barely, but a majority. But polling consists of measuring a moving target so just because it is accurate today doesn’t mean it is going to be accurate on the day it matters. 

In any case, the Progressive Conservatives have reason to be, as the saying goes, cautiously optimistic. Kevin Vickers’ Liberals are, I expect, doing some heavy-duty strategizing on what they can do to improve their fortunes as the clock continues to run out. I expect David Coon and his Greens are worried about losing their seat in Memramcook-Tantramar but perhaps hopeful of picking one up in Fredericton North, while Kris Austin of the People’s Alliance is perhaps wondering if he’s going to have a caucus come next Monday night. 

Higgs decision to call an election has been roundly condemned as opportunistic, but I have never heard of a minority government anywhere that would ever pass on such an opportunity if it felt the time was right to win a majority. And it looks like he is not going to be punished for that, pandemic or no pandemic. 

The other thing I hear though is a more valid point. That’s that people like the way this minority government situation has worked out. I agree. I would like to see another minority government as I think minorities serve us well. I get it that Higgs thinks otherwise and I can certainly see why, given the partly Covid-fed tough economic decisions that will have to be made as we try to recover. The last thing he needs is having to satisfy opposing parties to get tough measures passed. But having to satisfy other parties, which also represent New Brunswickers, is actually what often leads to better decisions. 

Here is a related point to keep in mind for those, and I sense there are many, that agree Higgs with a minority is preferable to Higgs with a majority. It is that if we had proportional representation rather than our antiquated first-past-the-post system, the very system the vast majority of democracies did away with many years ago, and for good reason, minority governments would then be the norm, not the exception. I still haven’t forgiven Trudeau for breaking his promise on that, but worth noting that it is also something worth pushing for provincially. 

But that aside, for Higgs this election is all about him getting his majority. But so far he has failed to do a solid job in convincing us he needs it. In fact in his recent op-ed in the Irving papers, he lays out chapter and verse all his government has accomplished in the past two years. If the intent was to convince us he needs a majority, that op-ed is actually counterproductive as the message it sends is that he doesn’t. Simply saying he needs a majority because it would provide government stability is hardly an argument. And the fact he doesn’t go further and say what he needs that stability to accomplish actually serves to make voters nervous because it begs the question – Stability to do what, exactly? 

In the leader’s debate last week, and elsewhere, both David Coon and Kris Austin have made valid arguments in favour of a minority government, giving examples of legislation that was changed for the better because of their input. Self-serving of course, but valid points nonetheless. 

For what it is worth, I think Higgs has done a good job, but I’m not sure I want to see him with unfettered power. Again, that’s something our first-past-the-post system often provides, and often to a government with well less than 40 percent popular support. 

We all chose whom to vote for based on which party’s priorities best matches ours. I happen to think Higgs is basically honest and has done a good job on the economy and would continue to do so. And I can see him making cuts to meet necessary economic goals to give us economic stability. Remember bringing us back from the economic brink, our reality way back before the pandemic? That should still be a thing.  What I am not convinced of though, is that Higgs’ economic focus won’t be at the expense of our most vulnerable. We have a crisis with affordable housing and food security, and while this may not be fair, I have not seen enough to convince me that Higgs is committed to dealing with these issues which for me should also top the list. Same for stepping up the care levels in our nursing homes, shortcomings Covid has specifically shone a light on. Keeping these kinds of issues front and centre, which may or may not be a priority for a majority Higgs government, is part of the benefit of having a minority government. It makes it harder for the government to ignore issues that are important. Not saying the Higgs govermnment would ignore these kinds of social issues, but I would feel better if there are people there holding the balance of power to ensure it doesn’t.

I also continue to wonder whether the shot that Higgs is Irving’s man is simply an unfair characterization based on nothing more than his pre-politics career as a senior Irving executive, or whether there is something to it. I said when he was elected two years ago that I figured the test on that will be whether his government reverses the changes made by previous PC and Liberal governments to the Crown Lands Act, changes that served Irving’s wishes to maximize profit at the expense of private woodlot owners and taxpayers. That test is incomplete at this point. Mind you Higgs worked for Irving Oil, not JDI, a different branch of the family empire and they are now split, but the issue is still about who calls the shots. 

I’m also not convinced Higgs cares enough about climate change despite some pro-environment election promises.  And I wonder about his decision not to call an inquiry into recent First Nations deaths at the hands of police in New Brunswick, as native leaders have called for. He may be right that there have been enough inquiries and First Nations people would be better served by actual action, but so far, he hasn’t initiated any nor has he been specific on what he will do. At a time when the general population, in Canada as well as the U.S., seems to have finally come to a place where many agree with blacks and native communities that fundamental change is needed, Higgs position appears to be out of step with the public mood. 

As for Kevin Vickers, his message that he would rely solely on economic development to cure what ails us, and somehow balance the budget in three years without any tax increases or cuts strikes me as unrealistic. If it were that simple, that formula would have proven itself over and over by now. It hasn’t. Anywhere. 

Otherwise though, his campaign with three priority points is better focused than it was two years ago, when the Liberal effort to get Brian Gallant re-elected was to promise the moon. That didn’t work, but it almost did. As Maxwell Smart used to say “missed it by that much”. As the campaign is shaping up, I expect there will be many ridings in which candidates of various parties will be lamenting how close they came. Others will celebrate. That’s how it goes.

I have some other thoughts, on the linguistic divide, on election priorities, and on election strategy, but I’ll save them for another day. 

As always, thanks for reading, and a special thanks to those who choose to share this to their networks.

Cover photo: New Brunswick’s Bay of Fundy, source: Pixabay