Rolling the dice on a pandemic election

I don’t know about you, but I never really saw Blaine Higgs as a gambler. But here he is tossing the dice by forcing an election on New Brunswickers in the midst of a pandemic. 

We all get it that no Premier likes a minority government, having to appease people you could otherwise ignore, and not being able to do things you want to do. So going all in on a bet to change his situation to a majority is, I expect, extremely tempting, pandemic or no pandemic. 

Photo credit - TJ News

Some are making a big deal out of having an election in a pandemic, but I don’t see where that’s a big issue. From where I sit we have adapted well. Thanks to Higgs and the cooperation of the all-party coronavirus committee, we have met the challenge better than most other provinces, and life seems to have gone pretty much back to, I won’t say normal, but to a reasonably comfortable routine. You may remember when Covid first became a thing, our streets and highways were all but deserted. Remember that? That’s no longer the case. When I go to the Superstore or wherever these days, I see people respecting social distancing, and many wear masks. It’s no great hardship. So why would it be a big inconvenience to vote during this pandemic? For those who are in a high-risk group or simply aren’t comfortable going out despite the safety measures that will be in place, vote by mail. It’s that simple.  The opposition parties will try to score points by blaming Higgs for foisting an election on us in the midst of a pandemic. I don’t see that resonating very much, but maybe I am misreading it and there will be a backlash that will make calling the election go down in history as a big strategic mistake, but I wouldn’t bet on it. 

I have been polled twice within the last three weeks or so with questions that made it obvious this was an attempt by the Higgs government to try to determine whether an election would be a good idea. If they hit me up twice, I expect a whole lot of New Brunswickers were also called. And the result must have been encouraging, or at least more encouraging than going into two by-elections. 

Photo credit: Wikipedia

It’s a given Kevin Vickers would have won the seat in Shediac vacated by his predecessor Brian Gallant. The one in St. Croix promised to be the more interesting. I have been told the Tories had polling that showed them winning it, but perhaps it wasn’t that convincing or just winning one wouldn’t be enough. The math suggests that may be the case. 

So what will change with this election? It will depend on how it is sold. 

Higgs is enjoying some positive satisfaction numbers right now, because of his government’s Covid response and overall policies that New Brunswickers seem to agree with, particularly, apparently, his focus on economic restraint to right our financial ship. 

With this in hand, Higgs initiated negotiations to try to give his government more stability in exchange for opposition input into policy. As we know, it didn’t work. Here’s where it depends on whose version of events you want to believe. Nuances aside, it appears the government’s ask was a bit of overreach that perhaps Higgs figured other parties would have to agree with because they feared an election. 

Photo credit: CBC

So, the negotiations fell apart and we go to the polls next month. 

What will change? It’s too early to say (how’s that for insightful commentary?) Seriously though, at this point I don’t see much changing. As much as Higgs approval ratings are up, that’s not going to translate into any seats in the north as Francophone voters aren’t about to support anyone who they see as overly friendly to the People’s Alliance, a party they see as anti-French. So Liberal seats in the north will stay Liberal. 

That leaves the south. Vickers doesn’t seem to have captured the imagination of voters to the point where seats are likely to turn because of him. Maybe the campaign will change that. I expect he will try to scare voters into believing a Higgs majority will see the government revisit the decision to close some rural emergency rooms. And who knows what else. 

Then there is the balance of power the Greens and People’s Alliance hold. Both parties are enjoying their first taste of success, aside from David Coon’s personal victory in the previous election, but where will this election leave them? I don’t see where the People’s Alliance has done much to expand their fortunes. When your claim to fame is persuading the government to do away with our front license plates, that’s a pretty slender reed to try to build on. 

Photo credit: theconversation.com

As for the Greens, David Coon shot himself in the foot with his ill-advised strategy to refrain from voting on the vaccination bill. It was seen as a dereliction of responsibility by many, and his damage control op-ed where he tried to rationalize that decision made matters worse because it underlined that his reasoning, that he couldn’t support it because of the lack of data, but that voting against it would make his party look like they were persuaded by the anti-vaxxers didn’t wash because he needed only explain why he was voting no. He should have simply explained that he blew it and promised not to make that kind of mistake again. That would have served him better but being a politician, admitting to doing something stupid doesn’t come easy. In short, his excuse was as lame as Dominic Cardy’s assertion that all those who voted against the bill were anti-vaxxers, was ridiculous. 

I expect both Coon and Kris Austin are nervous. Actually, I expect they are all nervous. And with good reason.

Thanks for reading. Shares are always appreciated.