Made your mind up yet? I have.

I just got a call from a Liberal campaign worker asking if Matt DeCourcey could depend on my support. I replied that I like Matt a lot, as he’s a great, honest guy but that I have a problem with his boss. I explained that I am still upset over his breaking his promise on electoral reform. The volunteer replied that she understood, and added, “What can I say?” 

It was a rhetorical question, but the answer would be “Nothing. There is nothing you can say”. A similar thing happened in the last federal election when a volunteer for the Conservatives knocked on my door asking if I would support then candidate Keith Ashfield. I told her I had tons of respect for Ashfield but unfortunately, a vote for him would be a vote for Stephen Harper, and that is something I could not do. She sighed and said, “I understand. I get that a lot”.  

It is true that elections as of late have become contests based on voter’s perception of the leaders, not the local candidates. There are exceptions of course, but the way our governments have evolved, if you can call it that, more and more of the power is consolidated in the PMO. Harper did that and Trudeau failed to fix it. You can even make a valid argument he made it worse. So maybe it is just as well that we focus on the leader and not the candidate.  

Photo Credit: Global News

Which brings up, as it always does, the whole business of strategic voting. And right on cue, in the homestretch of the campaign, the Liberal messaging has changed to the warning that if you vote Green or NDP, you may end up with Scheer.  

While obviously this rhetoric drives the Greens and NDP crazy, and how could it not, there is no denying strategic voting is a real thing. When you have several parties on the left and only one on the right, simple math shows that if progressive voters divide up their support, it increases the odds that the party on the right will win the seat in question. 

Which brings us to Fredericton. According to CalculatedPolitics.ca, a site that aggregates all the polls by appropriate weight, the riding of Fredericton is the tightest in the province, and perhaps the country. As of late yesterday (Thursday) the percentages broke down as 31% Liberal, 30% Conservative and 28% Green. It has been seesawing for the two or three weeks I have been following it, and the leader of the day has never been more than 3 percentage points ahead of whoever was in third place. 

If this polling holds, it means the candidates for all of these parties have a decent shot. The NDP though, at 10 percent, doesn’t. But if those NDP supporters agreed a vote for their party will be a wasted vote, but they want a progressive, they could be instrumental in choosing our next MP, if they vote for their second choice, assuming they are reasonably of like mind. 

Photo Credit: CityNews 1130

I have long been a fan of Proportional Representation. To my mind, no party should get 100 percent of the power when only a minority of Canadian voters voted for them. And I know, after Trudeau fooled us last time, and that it is the last thing the Conservatives would support, that unless there is a third party with a balance of power to push for PR as a condition of support, it won’t happen.  

It’s somewhat ironic that if we had Proportional Representation, the distaste of strategic voting wouldn’t be an issue, nor would holding ones nose and voting for someone you don’t really want to vote for.  

So I’m fed up. Even though Trudeau did some good things, the Child Tax Credit and NAFTA come to mind, he was a disappointment in too many other ways, and doesn’t deserve another majority. And Scheer, from what I can see has nothing much to offer – no vision and particularly nothing more than lip service on climate change. Plus, unlike our provincial Progressive Conservatives, Scheer’s Conservatives remain just the Reform Party by another name, with still no room for moderates.  

Photo Credit: CBC

On a Saturday morning a couple of weeks back, the local Green candidate Jenica Atwin was interviewed the national CBC radio show The House. I found her pretty impressive. By coincidence the very next day she showed up at our door. We had a good chat and my earlier impression was confirmed.  

Last time around I voted strategically so as not to risk having to live with the knowledge my vote may have helped Harper. This time, it’s not strategic. The Greens have a real shot here.  And that could lead to them having the balance of power, and that would be a good thing.  

So because of all of that, and because of my disillusion with the Liberals and Conservatives, the credibility of Elizabeth May and the fact the Greens have a solid platform and an impressive candidate here in Fredericton, I have made up my mind. And I have a sign on our front lawn to underline it.  

However it plays out, the Fredericton riding should prove to be a most interesting one to watch, come Monday night.

Update - new numbers this morning (Friday) show the Greens up a point to 29 percent in Fredericton riding. The Liberal and Conservative percentages are unchanged at 31 and 30 percent respectively. Can you say “horserace?”

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